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Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe

Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times

The Spring EUR REO projects the economic outlook for the region for the next six months.

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2015/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Marcos Chamon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513500805.001

ISBN: 9781513500805

Keywords: capital inflows, bonds, bond, return, domestic bonds, All Countries, apital inflows,

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead t...

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?

Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Gustavo Adler , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513585840.001

ISBN: 9781513585840

Keywords: exchange rate, gross capital flows, exchange, market, General,

Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these...

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
			: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets : Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Erlend Nier , Tahsin Saadi Sedik , and Tomas Mondino

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498351867.001

ISBN: 9781498351867

Keywords: Global financial cycles, Emerging Market Economies, capital inflows, private capital, capital controls, Other, Portfolio Choice,

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX,...

Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends
			: Does it Work?

Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends : Does it Work? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/188

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atish Ghosh , Mahvash Qureshi , and Naotaka Sugawara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498358743.001

ISBN: 9781498358743

Keywords: cross-boder bank flows, prudential measures, bond, capital inflow, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper examines whether cross-border capital flows can be regulated by imposing capital account restrictions (CARs) in both source and recipient countries, as was originally advocated by John Maynard Keynes and...

The Role of Risk and Information for International Capital Flows
			: New Evidence from the SDDS

The Role of Risk and Information for International Capital Flows : New Evidence from the SDDS »

Volume/Issue: 2012/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuko Hashimoto , and Konstantin Wacker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475568660.001

ISBN: 9781475568660

Keywords: determinants of capital flows, information, panel data, risk, SDDS, FDI, portfolio investment, spatial econometrics, direct investment, Models with Panel Data,

In this paper we investigate whether better information about the macroeconomic environment of an economy has a positive impact on its capital inflows, namely portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI). The purp...

The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe
			: Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?

The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe : Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference? »

Volume/Issue: 2012/222

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruben Atoyan , Dustin Smith , and Albert Jaeger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475510270.001

ISBN: 9781475510270

Keywords: absorption boom, capital inflows, private capital inflows, private capital, Model Evaluation and Selection,

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposin...

Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows
			: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania

Managing Large-Scale Capital Inflows : The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania »

Volume/Issue: 2012/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leonor Keller , and Ibrahim Chowdhury

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503920.001

ISBN: 9781475503920

Keywords: exchange rate, exchange rate appreciation

Many emerging market economies have in the recent past experienced a surge in capital inflows that may threaten their economic and financial stability. The IMF in early 2011 proposed a framework intended to guide F...

Financial Regulation and the Current Account

Financial Regulation and the Current Account »

Volume/Issue: 2012/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tomasz Wieladek , and Sergi Lanau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502886.001

ISBN: 9781475502886

Keywords: financial regulation, panel VAR, capital account, capital account openness, current account deficit, current account imbalances, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

This paper examines the relationship between financial regulation and the current account in an intertemporal model of the current account where financial regulation affects the current account through liquidity co...

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2012/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Malika Pant , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463937737.001

ISBN: 9781463937737

Keywords: Coincident Indicators, Capital Tracker, net capital flows, net capital, capital inflows, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicato...

Sectoral Composition of Foreign Direct Investment and External Vulnerability in Eastern Europe

Sectoral Composition of Foreign Direct Investment and External Vulnerability in Eastern Europe »

Volume/Issue: 2011/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuko Kinoshita

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455263400.001

ISBN: 9781455263400

Keywords: Central Eastern Europe, Southeastern Europe, external vulnerability, fdi, investment, direct investment, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Economywide Country Studies: Europe,

In the run up to the global crisis, countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe attracted large capital inflows and some of them built up large external imbalances. This paper investigates whether these im...