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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence
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Volume/Issue:
2015/226
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan Ostry, Atish Ghosh, and Marcos Chamon
Publisher:
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Published Date:
October 2015
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513500805.001
ISBN:
9781513500805
ISSN:
1018-5941
Page:
24
The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.
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